Beyond Survival: Why ‘Steady as She Goes’ is Killing Independent Schools

We're barely two months into 2025, and already thirty-two independent schools across the UK have announced closures or are consulting on possible closure. Thirty-two schools. Each one representing hundreds of pupils, dozens of teachers, countless families, and decades—sometimes centuries—of educational heritage.

Let that sink in for a moment.

These aren't just statistics on a spreadsheet. They're communities that will scatter, traditions that will end, and young lives that will be disrupted. Behind each closure is a governing body that probably spent months saying, "If we just hold steady, if we just get through this year, things will turn around."

But here's the uncomfortable truth: steady as she goes isn't working. In fact, it's precisely this mindset that's killing independent schools across the country.

The Perfect Storm Isn't Coming—It's Here

The challenges facing independent schools in 2025 aren't theoretical anymore. They're immediate and relentless. VAT on school fees has just been implemented, pupil numbers have fallen by over 13,000 (a 2.4% drop), and schools are facing rising costs from increased National Insurance contributions alongside general inflation. Meanwhile, competition isn't just coming from other independent schools—grammar schools, academies, and enhanced state offerings are eroding the perceived gap that once justified independent school fees.

This isn't a temporary blip that schools can weather by tightening their belts and hoping for better times. This is a fundamental shift in the educational landscape that demands fundamental changes in how schools operate. While some schools have risen to meet this challenge with innovation and bold leadership, many others are still hoping that maintaining the status quo will somehow lead to different results.

The Survival Trap

I've watched too many school leaders fall into what I call the "survival trap." When enrollment drops, when finances tighten, when challenges mount, the instinct is to hunker down, cut costs, and wait for the storm to pass. Schools reduce marketing spend, defer facility improvements, freeze staff development, and hope that maintaining the status quo will somehow lead to different results.

But survival thinking creates a vicious cycle. Schools that merely survive become less attractive to prospective families. They lose their competitive edge. They stop innovating. They become increasingly irrelevant. And eventually, they join the growing list of closures.

Consider the schools we've already lost or are losing. A beloved school in Devon, with nearly two centuries of Methodist heritage, had to be sold to international investors. A school in Leeds was forced to close entirely. Many of these weren't failing academically. They weren't poorly managed. They simply couldn't evolve fast enough to meet the changing expectations of families and the economic realities of our time.

What Thriving Schools Do Differently

The schools that are not just surviving but actually thriving in this challenging environment share certain characteristics. They've moved beyond preservation mode into transformation mode. They don't ask, "How do we keep doing what we've always done?" Instead, they ask, "How do we become what families need us to be?"

They Redefine Value: Today's parents expect more than small class sizes. They want schools to help every child thrive in a way that feels tailored. Thriving schools have articulated and demonstrated their unique value proposition clearly. They've stopped competing on tradition alone and started competing on outcomes, experience, and transformation.

They Invest in Relationships: Schools using digital platforms to streamline communication report higher retention rates and stronger parent advocacy, because parents feel part of their child's journey, not just observers. These schools understand that every pupil retained can be as valuable as two new recruits when marketing costs are factored in.

They Embrace Bold Leadership: The heads who are succeeding right now aren't playing it safe. They're making difficult decisions about curriculum, staffing, and strategic direction. They're willing to change course when data shows they need to. They lead with vision, not just management.

The Methodist Advantage We're Not Using

This is where I believe Methodist schools have a particular opportunity—and a particular responsibility. Our Methodist heritage isn't a relic to be preserved; it's a competitive advantage to be activated.

John Wesley didn't create a movement by playing it safe. He revolutionized education by insisting that learning should be practical, accessible, and transformational. He combined rigorous intellectual development with character formation. He believed education should serve not just the individual, but the community and the world.

Yet many Methodist schools - even some of our oldest and most prestigious institutions - have become so focused on preserving their heritage that they've forgotten how to apply it. Some schools have found innovative ways to meet these challenges, but others talk about Methodist values as if they're museum pieces rather than living principles that should be shaping cutting-edge educational approaches.

The Choice Before Us

Every Methodist school leader faces the same choice right now: Will you lead a school that's trying to survive, or will you lead a school that's determined to thrive?

Survival thinking asks: How do we cut costs? How do we maintain what we have? How do we get through this year?

Thriving thinking asks: How do we create such extraordinary value that families can't imagine choosing anywhere else? How do we use our Methodist foundation to offer something no other school can? How do we become indispensable to our community?

The schools that will be here in ten years won't be the ones that managed to hold on. They'll be the ones that decided to transform. They'll be the ones that chose to lead rather than react.

Time for Radical Clarity

The independent education sector is experiencing one of the most significant upheavals in its history. Schools that respond with incremental adjustments will continue to struggle. Schools that respond with radical clarity about their mission, bold investment in their unique strengths, and relentless focus on creating exceptional value will not just survive—they'll thrive.

The question isn't whether your school will face challenges in the coming year. The question is whether you'll meet those challenges with survival thinking or thriving thinking.

Because right now, steady as she goes is a luxury none of us can afford.

What does thriving thinking look like for your school? I'd love to help you discover not just how to weather this storm, but how to use it as a catalyst for transformation. Let's start the conversation.